Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.420088 28.816033 34.211761 41.475935 51.254419 64.369735 84.074203
2025-02-02 20.145072 25.519156 32.904438 44.325430 62.680884 93.578268 157.160917
2025-02-09 16.509722 21.680832 29.220348 41.819252 64.368020 108.640536 225.826206
2025-02-16 14.968868 20.335347 28.618192 43.583528 73.649062 144.455113 411.452839
2025-02-23 13.473823 18.743090 27.212280 43.425794 79.094797 177.404516 718.103262
2025-03-02 12.284345 17.420726 25.956957 43.123692 84.081258 215.682139 1371.945110
2025-03-09 11.456712 16.551487 25.299549 43.785026 91.824495 276.141088 3754.605392
2025-03-16 10.428683 15.220810 23.599696 41.809823 91.581950 305.534446 8811.839770
2025-03-23 9.782474 14.463710 22.840720 41.726343 96.976370 377.294665 112548.830428
2025-03-30 8.967620 13.335661 21.233980 39.340343 94.026339 395.614926 NaN
2025-04-06 8.205635 12.240978 19.579365 36.557710 88.758604 390.913623 NaN
2025-04-13 7.601382 11.382820 18.307123 34.508406 85.427442 398.885169 NaN
2025-04-20 7.821348 12.037265 20.154857 40.812461 118.049785 967.566432 NaN
2025-04-27 7.668154 11.994206 20.579428 43.606294 140.488067 1969.286942 NaN
2025-05-04 7.134685 11.189385 19.276272 41.158636 135.140640 2122.094831 NaN
2025-05-11 6.950461 11.034480 19.370206 42.881723 154.511324 4820.284190 NaN
2025-05-18 6.656483 10.642642 18.888807 42.727704 163.188772 9312.548885 NaN
2025-05-25 6.379999 10.264383 18.396539 42.432698 171.144562 21871.205049 NaN
2025-06-01 6.181815 10.026084 18.200304 43.078466 187.344514 231310.114106 NaN
2025-06-08 5.855265 9.510209 17.303633 41.149429 181.501367 587234.530121 NaN
2025-06-15 5.653963 9.234810 16.953612 41.067878 191.688543 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.347755 8.730590 16.015941 38.736261 179.931953 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.037247 8.205570 14.999824 36.015147 163.565058 NaN NaN